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China Arms Ban Stays (For Now)
France's determination to sell high-tech weapons to China leaves Tony Blair in a difficult position - once again.
The EU will not lift its embargo on selling weapons to China despite strong pressure from France and Germany. A spokeswoman said that China's human rights record was the main cause for concern.
China claims the ban is a cold war relic and should be lifted to reflect recent trade co-operation between Beijing and Brussels. However, Beijing's expected anger at the ban was cooled somewhat by a pledge from the EU to "work towards" ending the ban, possibly as early as next year.
The delay comes as a blow to France's president Jacques Chirac and Germany's chancellor Gerhard Schröder, both of whom have been sucking up to China in quite spectacular fashion in recent months. Chirac in particular has campaigned hard to have the ban lifted: This vote was the third time this year the EU has rejected his demands to reopen arms sales to China.
Opposition to lifting the ban is led by Sweden and backed - slightly reluctantly, it must be said - by Britain. Britain probably accepts that the ban has served its initial purpose, which was to punish China for the Tiananmen Square massacre. Furthermore, the fact that the EU sells over $200 million of arms to China annually despite the ban (the lion's share of the sales coming from France) detracts from the embargo's force.
Besides, while no-one, with the possible exception of Chirac and Schröder, doubts that China is a potential bad guy, there are worse customers out there. The US is selling $1.2 billion worth of surveillance aircraft and anti-tank missiles to Pakistan. You could argue that Pakistan is a couple of assassin's bullets away from becoming a fundamentalist theocracy with murderous intent towards its neighbour India. You could further argue that providing an already unstable region with the means to wage war is reckless, not least considering that just over a year ago Pakistan and India were polishing their nukes in preparation for a border war. You might add that it was a Pakistani scientist - not a North Korean, not an Iranian, not an Iraqi - who appears to have done more for nuclear proliferation than anyone in recent years.
Whatever: What is clear is that all's fair in love and the arms' trade, and if the US is enjoying its slice of the action by flogging guns to Pakistan, well why can't Europe sell to its favourite villain?
Well, for a start, Pakistan is unlikely to use its weapons against Europe. However, there is a strong possibility that at some stage in the future, China will be brandishing its shiny new EU weapons at the United States. Even if Beijing doesn't get the chance to see its new kit in action, the fact that it has high-tech Euro-weapons shifts the balance of power in the region uncomfortably for the United States and its ally Taiwan.
The US has pledged to defend Taiwan should China attack. China has continued a military build-up across the straits, tested rockets capable of striking Taiwan's cities and conducted mock "invasions." Earlier this year, France joined China in naval exercises just as Taiwan conducted a crucial election - one which China had threatened could lead to war in the region.
That said, as several EURSOC readers commented after the exercises, Taiwan's government hasn't helped the situation, hiding behind the US security guarantee to snipe at the Chinese. "Americans are widely acknowledged to be suckers, but this is ridiculous," wrote one, who claimed that certain Taiwanese politicians were using the US shield to further their own careers.
As our correspondent remarked, America's dance card is full for the foreseeable future: And the People's Liberation Army of China is no Iraqi Republican Guard. The last thing the US needs is another war; particularly in a region teeming with US interests.
But still, a Chinese military build-up assisted by high-tech European weapons is a sensitive issue for Washington. The US is said to be "lobbying hard" to keep the embargo alive.
The determination of some Europeans to shift the balance of power in Asia in China's favour will confirm worst suspicions of those in Washington who believe France and Germany will stop at nothing in their hope of building a multipolar world which will limit US action. France, Germany and whichever EU nations they can pull with them cannot realistically limit US interests - but by using their technology to push China's armed forces into the 21st century they can indirectly constrain the superpower.
In response to Europe's shenanigans, Washington is planning an embargo of its own. A bill is in the planning stages which could see a ban on selling weapons systems to any nation which sells arms to China. Enforcing this ban could prove difficult: France will certainly sell weapons to China, but it is a NATO country expected to go to war alongside nations which might decide against selling China weapons. Furthermore increased co-ordination in the proposed EU action force, and closer military co-operation between EU nations will see an overlap between French, German and British troops. And as for joint EU defence projects which are then sold on to China?
The geopolitical changes may seem abstract, but once again the weight of change falls onto Britain's PM Tony Blair. Blair might accept that economic realities and political change in China means the ban should go. Equally, he will be painfully aware that any transfer of high-tech weaponry to China threatens the United States - not to mention the relationship between the US and Europe.
Of course, that may be the point. As with his opposition to the Iraq war, Chirac got to strike a blow against the United States while damaging Tony Blair's position as a "bridge" between the US and Europe almost as a bonus. Selling weapons to China will infuriate America in the short term. It will bring Chirac's dream of a multipolar world closer in the medium term. And once again, it will leave Britain, and Blair in particular, in the uncomfortable position of being torn between Atlanticist and European committments.
Blair has worked hard to make himself the living embodiment of a European who can also be an Atlanticist. Toppling Blair would prove to Chirac's Eurofanatics that it is impossible to be loyal to the EU and the US.
