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The Party's Over?
One way for national leaders to ensure that their premiership is remembered as a prosperous golden age is to leave your successor with an inbox bulging with enormous difficulties. As the Tony Blair era draws to a close, commentators are beginning to get a picture of the challenges facing his heir, Gordon Brown - and the Conservative's contender, David Cameron.
In a scathing leader today (entitled, pointedly, "Britain isn't working"), The Times draws up the charge sheet against the current government. Despite Britain's apparent prosperity, it warns, the nation has lost its "competitive advantage" thanks to the government's tax rises and over-investment in the inefficient, unproductive public sector.
The newspaper claims that British tax and welfare bills are beginning to take on decidely "continental" dimensions, warning that Britain's economy risks becoming as sluggish as that of Germany's or Italy's.
For a government that has posed as a successful alternative to its struggling rivals across the Channel, the (recently Blairite) Times' editorial will come across as the toughest of tough love.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown takes the credit for steering the economy through its recent prosperous patch - so it can be expected that much of the blame will fall on him if the UK's current slowdown becomes a full-blown recession. Indeed, such has been Blair's willingness to leave the entire economic portfolio in his Chancellor's hands, it might turn out to be one of the few times in modern history where the causes of an economic downturn can be traced directly to one man. Or at least, that's how his critics in the Conservative Party will paint it, when a straight battle between Brown and David Cameron finally comes.
Can Britain avoid a Euro-style downturn? Perhaps - but tough action needs to be taken, and fast. The opposition in Blair's party to liberalising education suggests that New Labour MPs are in no mood for further concessions to the market. In opposition, David Cameron has positioned himself so close to Blair in style and policy that it is difficult to imagine him frightening voters with tough liberal rhetoric now.
As realisation dawns among Britain's political classes that the Blair Party might be drawing to a close, the PM's heirs will be wondering how best to stave off the inevitable hangover. Brown will succeed Blair - but he does not want to take over as the loathed architect of Britain's downturn. He needs a honeymoon period to build upon if he is to win election himself in 2009 - and will be well aware that opinion polls show Cameron's Tories developing a lead over Labour.
Blair, too, must be aware of the writing on the wall. Figures released this week show unemployment in Britain is on the rise again. The PM must be thinking that despite trouble in Iraq, failure to break the EU's cycle of corruption and decline and a refusal to further liberalisation from New Labour, the period from 1997-2006 has been marked by economic growth and success for Britain on the world stage.
He remains fairly popular, but is concerned about his heritage - and won't want to hang around to watch an era of gilded prosperity sink into grey depression.
Could this year see Blair's resignation, followed by a snap election in the middle of Brown's honeymoon period? The Chancellor won't want to risk letting the Tories' lead grow - or the economy getting any worse.
The flipside of leaving your problems for your successor is getting out before they blow up in your face.
