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Rotten To The Core
The spectre of a fast track Europe has raised its ugly head again, this time in response to the probable rejection of the European constitution by British voters.
Apparently, senior advisers to German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder are spreading tales that plans are already in place to unveil an "inner circle" of EU devotees, to be announced the day after Britain rejcts the treaty.
The core group would likely be made up of Germany, Belgium, France and any other nations the Paris-Berlin axis could persuade to sign up.
A fast-track, fast-integrating core of EU ultras has long been a dream of Europe's more federal nations. It last appeared in December 2003, when EURSOC reported that a failure in constitution negotiations would be no bad thing for federalists, who might go on to form a closer union of their own and exclude members who refuse to bow to Franco-German rule.
Then, as now, the main target of the axis would be Britain, seen by many EU members as the major obstacle to closer integration. As France, Germany and half a dozen tame satellite states took steps towards becoming one bloc, Britain would become increasingly isolated, its voting power reduced in proportion to the axis behemoth. Or so the plan goes.
However, today's revelations include more concrete proposals. A "secretariat" would be formed to manage closer coordination. Merging of armed forces and embassies would be among the first manifestations of the "core Europe," though supporters of the scheme admit such changes could take years.
How much chance does the axis of EU ultras have this time? Well, first of all, it isn't only Britain that could reject the constitution in a referendum. France's Jacques Chirac has staked his own reputation on a vote, and is now taking panic measures to rush the referendum through, as each day appears to bring a fall in support for the treaty. Yesterday a hurriedly-arranged session of deputies in Versailles voted to make the necessary changes to France's constitution to allow the EU constitution to be grafted on.
Even if France buys the constitution, its voters are by no means guaranteed to buy into a marriage with Germany, never mind insignificant states like Belgium. While Chirac's ruling UMP party broadly supports the constitution, one UMP deputy left Versailles yesterday complaining that ratifying the treaty signalled France's suicide as a nation. Sentiments like these could grow.
And as for Germany... well, ten years ago, if a group of nations were asked to join a union propelled by German economic power, they would jump at such an attractive prospect. Indeed, ten "New Europeans" did just that, finally joining the EU last year.
Ten years on, however, and it's a different story. German unemployment has spiralled ever higher, hitting the 5.2 million mark this week.
A new report shows how Germany has tumbled down the EU's economic rankings in the past decade. If trends continue, it will soon languish in the bottom ranks of wealth ratings for the EU's 15 established members.
It's the worst economic situation Germany has experienced since the 1930s, and morale among citizens has reached an all-time low: "Do Something!" screamed the headlines of the popular Bild newspaper this morning as it announced the news.
Would any serious nation consider entering a political and economic alliance with such a fading power?
Should the idea of a core Europe ever arise, voters would be faced with a stark choice.
On one side, a group of free and prosperous nations who, if their prosperity or freedom is threatened can eject their leaders from power and elect others.
On the other hand, they could sign up to a Eurofantasist "core", ruled by a shady secretariat and dominated by the continent's biggest economic scrapyard.
If Chirac thinks selling the constitution is a tough job, he ain't seen nothing yet: Selling a fast-track Europe would be much worse.
