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France's Protest President
Merde in France raises the disturbing - but at the same time hilarious - prospect that anti-globalisation protestor José Bové could become the next president of France.
Bové is best known outside France for his ridiculous moustache - like something from a Village People tribute band - and his penchant for smashing up burger joints. He's rarely far away from anti-west, anti-trade protests, though he has defended the Common Agricultural Policy, which contributes greatly to third world poverty.
In France, however, Bové is a folk hero and an incredibly popular public figure.
But could he win a presidential election? It's not entirely unlikely. Though he's popular, most Frenchmen would prefer someone with more gravitas and dignity to represent them on the world stage - or so you would think.
Look at the results in the first round of 2002's presidential election. Chirac came first, with 19.83% of the vote - the lowest ever for an incumbent president.
Second came the National Front (FN) leader Jean Marie Le Pen, with 16.91%. Lionel Jospin, of the mainstream Socialist Party (PS) came a poor third with 16.14.
Only the top two go through to the second round play-off.
Look again at the results for smaller parties. A variety of extreme left parties won around 16-18% of the vote. The Greens, though they traditionally side with the PS, won another 5.24.
Though many of these smaller parties traditionally hate one another, plans are afoot to merge at least two of France's extreme left groups.
All in all, at least 36-38% of French people have shown willing to vote for extremists in their presidential elections.
Now, imagine that the far-left gets its act together and presents a unity candidate for 2007's presidential election. Bové might be the man for the job - as we noted above, he is more popular among mainstream Frenchmen than sinister nutcases like Arlette Laguiller or Olivier Besancenot.
Then imagine that voters tire of the scandal surrounding Chirac's party - his chosen successor, Alain Juppé, has just been convicted of corruption and banned from office for ten years - effectively ruling him out of the contest. Voters suspect that Chirac is in on the act - only his (recently won) (coincidentally) presidential immunity is keeping the magistrates from his door.
Chirac has not said whether or not he will run for president in 2007. Now that Juppé has been scuppered, he may have no choice, otherwise his arch-rival, popular interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy, could win.
The FN's Le Pen will work hard to exploit voters' dissatisfaction with Chirac's corruption. The FN is expected to do well in next month's regional elections - could their success breed further success in 2007?
Back to those results. The most striking thing about them is the narrow gap between the top three candidates. We're talking tiny percentages. In theory, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Le Pen might repeat his 2002 success.
Equally, an extreme left, green, globophobic candidate could scrape in ahead of the hapless Socialist Party and a sleaze-tainted incumbent.
A man like José Bové, perhaps.
That's an awful lot of ifs and buts. For a start, Bové hasn't agreed to run.
Furthermore, Le Pen's support may have peaked - his 2002 vote was only 200,000 more than the previous election in 1995.
In some ways the 2002 election was a one-off, with multiple candidates chipping away at the mainstream vote.
Other candidates might not run in 2007: Jean-Pierre Chevenement, who won over 5% of the 2002 vote, is not a guaranteed runner. Francois Bayrou, who won nearly 7% of the first round vote, has currently thrown his lot in with Chirac's party and might not challenge its official candidate (not least if he himself is that candidate).
Moreover, any real danger of a Le Pen - Bové run-off might scare France's establishment so much that it comes up with a realistic unity figure.
That said, the very narrowness of the 2002 first round shows that France is playing with high stakes.
Traditionally, the first round of French presidential elections attracts protest votes: Voters choose loony left or loony right candidates to frighten the establishment, then pick one of the mainstream pair in the second round.
The trouble is that the current system could bring France very close to having its first Protest President.
UPDATE: It's worth having a look at François-René Rideau's weblog, where this speculation started. It's a very funny 'catastrophe scenario' based on the election of president Bové.
In French, but here are selected highlights in translation:
(2007: Bové has beaten Jean-Marie Le Pen in the second round of the presidential elections.)
The American Embassy in Paris is besieged by refugees.
The only good outcome from all this is that the United States eventually offers political asylum to French candidates. The government of Quebec, too, has opened its arms to the French, who it hopes will increase numbers of French-speakers in the state.
Jean-Marie Harribey, the brains behind ATTAC (EURSOC note: globophobe union) is named minister of the economy. The other moustache, Noël Mamère (EURSOC note: Green party leader) is named minister for sustainable development, and also takes the environment and industry portfolios.
Olivier Besancenot (Revolutionary Communist leader) is minister for labour. Arlette Laguiller (Trotskyist leader) is minister for justice.
After putting green highlights in his white hair, Jack Lang (former Socialist Party culture and education minister) receives the portfolios of education and research, youth, sports, culture and good health and happiness.
A half-blind, handicapped black lesbian is named minister for equality.
(Centre right 'refugee') Francois Bayrou is minister for 'difference'.
(Globophobe mouthpiece and rock singer, on trial in Lithuania for the murder of his girlfriend) Bernard Cantat - pardoned - is made minister for solidarity. (The anti-globalisation mob's favourite hardline Islamist intellectual) Tariq Ramadan is minister for peace.
To celebrate this electoral victory, the kids attack Jewish schools...
