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The End Of The Affair
Say it ain't so. The romance that set hearts quivering and stomachs churning across Europe could be on the rocks. Germany's Gerhard Schröder is seeking to escape from his abusive relationship with France's Jacques Chirac - and is making eyes at Britain and America.
According to some reports, senior German officials worry that Chancellor Schröder was a prisoner of Jacques Chirac's foreign policy.
The gruesome twosome enjoy a close relationship, and not just in their mutual opposition to America's war on terror. Last year, Franco-German councils diverted European agricultural reform and tore up the Eurozone stability pact. They were at the heart of moves to create a 'fast lane' of EU integrationist states; there were even rumours of plots to unite France and Germany. Chirac represented Germany at an EU conference when Schröder was called away for a crucial domestic vote. And for the first time since the second world war, a German commander led a military parade down the Champs-Elysées on Bastille Day.
This sort of grandstanding appeals to the French, who rarely miss the opportunity to co-opt other nations' clout to magnify their own. France alone is fairly insignificant. France united with Germany and their tame satellites, Belgium and Luxembourg, is a more formidable proposition.
The Germans, however, are wondering what's in it for them. Schröder's anti-Americanism aside, the transatlantic relationship has always been important to Germany. Despite conflicts with Blair over Iraq and EU integration, Germans often feel closer to Brits than they do to the French.
Moreover, when EU expansion eastwards began to look like a reality in the early to mid 1990s, Germany was bullish: The EU's richest nation, at the heart of Europe, was expected to bridge east and west.
A decade on and Germany has lost its confidence. French fears and latterly gloominess regarding EU expansion seems to have infected the Germans. The row with Poland on the constitution didn't help, but prior to that, the new nations' rebuttal of the Franco-German position on Iraq undermined Germany's hopes of enjoying influence in Central and Eastern Europe.
Being the junior partner in the Greater France project has its advantages - German officials claim that progress in the EU is impossible without the agreement of the two nations - but these are far outweighed by the risks.
One German source complains of how Germany became a 'prisoner' of Jacques Chirac's foreign policy during the build up to the Iraq war: "We were more dependent on the French in that situation. But this will not be a permanent situation."
Another adds, "We have to be careful that we are not identified with every word that the French president utters. We must have our own identity and be a little more clever."
So, what's the plan? Well, Gerhard Schröder has been working on that transatlantic relationship again, taking a more conciliatory tone with president Bush. An invitation to Bush's Texas ranch may be distant, but it is certainly a possibility (it is difficult to imagine M Chirac enjoying the president's hospitality in the near future). Schröder should at least consider buying a pair of cowboy boots.
Cosying up to Britain is on the agenda, too. As we discussed at the weekend, Germany's arch-Eurofanatic Joshka Fischer appeared to concede that an EU superstate with one government, one law is an unattainable dream. Fischer noted the need to reconcile Britain's vision of strong nations with Germany's federal fantasy.
The Telegraph reports that Germany hopes to bring Britain, and maybe Poland, into the Franco-German 'motor' for Europe.
This will be sweet music to Tony Blair's ears, as he has been trying to charm his way into this exclusive club for some time, but sober voices in Britain will urge caution.
Schröder is not yet filing for divorce from Chirac, but as the French president is used to leading this Franco-German dance, it is difficult to see him responding positively to the chancellor's request for an open relationship.
Will Schröder have the nerve to stand up for what is right for Germany, or will he keep backing Jacques? Watch this space.
