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Sarko Heads For Sun
France's President Nicolas Sarkozy's summer holidays are more promising, for him, than his Christmas break.
At the end of 2007, France's Presidency took on the characteristics of a surreal soap opera. The new President, who enjoyed unprecedented popularity, was divorced by his troublesome wife Cécilia - a first for the Elysée. Within weeks he was stepping out with famous supermodel-turned-singer Carla Bruni. He accompanied La Bruni to Disneyland Paris, and then frolicked with her on the beaches of a swish Egyptian Red Sea resort. Rumours of engagement flew; shivering back home, the French watched their standard of living drop and fumed. Sarkozy's ratings fell at a dizzying pace.
He started January as France's most unpopular President in decades.
Sarkozy claimed he didn't care. He wasn't elected to be popular, he said, but to reform France's stagnating economy and social model. However, even those in the hard-working middle classes deserted him as it became clear he wasn't using up his political capital doing the unpopular work of taking on France's vested interests, but frittering it away by parading his new girlfriend in front of the disbelieving people.
As he looked down the barrel of the six months to summer Sarkozy had promised would see the hard work of reforming France begin, he was a seriously weakened figure. Unions and the left gloated that the great man of action looked like being yet another right-wing firebrand who promised much, but delivered little. His low ratings would curb his appetite for reform.
As Sarkozy heads off for his summer holidays, however, he can reflect that he's done better than expected. His personal approval ratings are still stubbornly low, but they didn't plunge further when he secured the long-promised removal of the 35 hour week. The 35 hour week took on totemic status on the right and left. A central plank of the 1990s Socialist government's jobs policy, liberals blame it for France's low growth and stubbornly high unemployment. Prominent Socialists, such as Dominique Voynet, who introduced the legislation, have joined union leaders promising chaos if the law was written off: Sarkozy didn't abolish it, but has effectively killed it off for smaller companies with a series of get-out clauses for management.
In the same week, parliament approved a series of other measures designed to nudge the unemployed into work and update striking rights. Unions threatened dire consequences if any of these went, but go they did, and in one fell swoop rather than the piecemeal process Sarkozy's detractors claimed.
Perhaps more significantly, Sarko's end-of-term saw a batch of constitutional measures passed. Socialists and even some Gaullists vowed to block the modernising reforms the President lined up last week - despite the package containing measures that the left had had on its wish list for years. The BBC called it "by general consensus, it was a presidential triumph" and says that despite difficulties to come, Sarkozy has built impressive momentum for his programme.
The fact that the left has been unable to come up with a plausible opposition leader hasn't hurt him. Ségolène Royal has been sniping from the sidelines, as even her supporters urge her to pipe down. Paris Mayor Bertrand Delanöe is feared by the centre-right as "the only human Socialist", but his party frets that his homosexuality would play poorly in La France Profonde. Further left, a new grouping of extremist factions led by charismatic postie Olivier Besancenot threatens to steal votes from Socialists should they moderate their message too much.
Sarkozy has enjoyed some personal success, too. His wife is now widely accepted as a popular First Lady, though one cannot shake the feeling of strangeness on seeing the number one hit singer grin from French news stands. Her much-praised visit to Britain in March sealed her suitability for the role.
That said, Sarkozy's in-tray will be bulging when he returns for the September rentrée. The unions claim that they're keeping their powder dry for when France returns to work; we shall see. Carla and her sister, Valeria Bruni Tedeschi, are calling for the President to intervene to prevent the extradition of an Italian terrorist. Italy's government wants the return of Red Brigade terrorist Marina Petrella who was arrested near Paris last year; her supporters, who include many from the French cultural scene, say that the ill Petrella would be sent to Italy to die. A number of Italian killers face extradition from France, where they were granted a form of asylum by Socialist President François Mitterand. Should Sarko listen to his heart on the Petrella matter, it could complicate the removal of dozens more terrorists and offend neighbouring EU partner Italy, where the appetite for justice has not diminished with the years. An intervention might win friends on the left bank, but would damage Sarko's tough-guy image - and fuel claims that the President is granting special favours to his wife's trendy-left circle.
Another danger facing Sarkozy is that "unreality" we mentioned earlier. Sarkozy and Carla are everywhere, a magical and photogenic pair who couple culture with politics and celebrity. Sarkozy hoped to emulate John F Kennedy's "Camelot" effect in his lifestyle and choice of collaborators; when France returns grumpily to Métro and boulot in September, a canny Socialist might care to draw uncomfortable parallels between the world of Camelot and the harsh reality facing millions of French citizens - and if there isn't anyone bright enough to do this in politics, then doubtless the press will be glad to oblige.
Edited 28 July 3.56 PM GMT, reason - correction and proofreading.
