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Human Sacrifice, EU-Style
EU expects Irish PM to throw himself on grenade
Ireland will vote a second time on the EU's Lisbon Treaty, probably in the Spring of next year. This was the line delivered by President Nicolas Sarkozy both before and during his flying visit to Dublin last week - and, as Daniel Hannan reports, it is also the belief of the Irish punditocracy.
Indeed, there's a precedent for asking the Irish to reconsider. They rejected the Nice Treaty in 2001 and the government, having secured get-out clauses on things like Ireland's contribution to any EU defence force, called another referendum in 2002, which was duly won by the pro-Europe camp.
However, Irish taoiseach Brian Cowan may face political ruin if he asks his electorate to vote on Lisbon a second time.
As Hannan reports, nearly three-quarters of Irish people oppose a second referendum. The "No" camp has extended its lead, opinion polls suggest, from 6 to 24 percent.
"A second "No" would destroy (Cowan) and delegitimise the European cause", writes Hannan.
Even calling a second poll might do that. The Irish are in rebellious mood, and the sight of their Prime Minister accepting orders from Brussels could finish him, before voting even started.
Back in 2005 as referendum speculation buzzed across Britain we wondered if either Blair or his heir apparent Gordon Brown would risk political capital trying to convince Britons to support the Constitution. Blair would risk it, we concluded. Tony Blair had a history of taking on unpopular causes. He turned Labour's commitment to nationalising industry on its head, he thought he could persuade the British to accept the European Single Currency and - hubristically or courageously, depending on where you sit - set about convincing the people of the need to support the US invasion of Iraq. Add to this his dream of reforming the EU, beginning with its Common Agricultural Policy racket, and you have a man seriously convinced of his powers of persuasion (or seriously deluded - again, depending on where you stand).
Brown, however, would be a different story. We predicted storm clouds gathering on the Brown government before the Chancellor became Prime Minister; indeed, while Blair was pushed rather than jumped from office, he left while the country's economy was in reasonable nick. We were convinced that Brown wouldn't use what little honeymoon period he might have remaining trying to persuade the British of the merits of the EU Constitution.
In the event, both the French and the Dutch saved either PM the embarrassment of defeat. When the revised Lisbon Treaty was presented in place of the Constitution, Blair's promised referendum disappeared too.
When former Irish taoiseach Bertie Ahern stepped down to spend more time with his accountants, one of the reasons given was that he didn't want the taint of scandal to affect the Irish vote. His career - successful, by European terms - might have faced a murky end, and he fell on his sword to prevent the EU suffering the same fate.
Brian Cowan took charge with the brief of convincing Irish voters to support the treaty. Despite the support of both main parties and the mainstream media, he failed. This has seriously dented his credibility at home. Perhaps not as much as Jacques Chirac's referendum defeat damaged him - after all, Ireland's constitution demands a vote on EU integration, so Cowan had the people's decision forced on him; Chirac, in his arrogance, believed he could win the French over and seal his Presidential authority in the process.
Cowan is expected to do it again next year: Another failure would finish his career, while even calling the vote will weaken him in the eyes of Irish voters.
He's damned if he does, damned if he don't. Incredible how the EU demands that politicians throw themselves on grenades like this to protect it.
