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Blairovision in tatters as govts look to Danish PM for EU President
Tony Blair's candidacy for the Presidency of the European Union seems dead before it got off the ground. France's President Nicolas Sarkozy, who stunned fellow leaders last year by nominating his good friend Tony to be the first EU President, now seems set to throw his weight behind Luxembourg PM Jean-Claude Juncker or current Commission President José Manuel Durao Barroso, reports from Paris say.
While both men have their supporters, neither holds much appeal for other EU nations, which is why speculation is coalescing around Denmark's charismatic centre-right leader Anders Fogh Rasmussen as a "compromise candidate."
The Times describes him as "dashing" while Silvio Berlusconi counts him as Europe's best-looking leader. Apparently he is keen to do the job (and has started learning French, always a good sign of Euro-ambition in a politician - the French see speaking and learning their language as a sympathetic political act).
Rasmussen supported the 2003 invasion of Iraq and sent troops into the country. He does however seem to have escaped much of the international opprobrium Blair and George Bush have drawn since the war. Danish combat troops left the country last year.
As for those other little problems which might exclude a Danish leader, such as Denmark not being in the Eurozone or the EU's justice and defence policies, Rasmussen is working on referenda to bring Denmark closer to the Euro-core.
He has in favour a clean record and an interest in using technology to bring himself closer to voters, both issues of interest to EU officials.
Blair's supporters have gone quiet over speculation linking the former British PM to the job, as have the smaller but vocal camp which backed Ireland's Bertie Ahern. Ahern seems to be out of the running thanks to a financial inquiry which led to his resignation, though financial murkiness is hardly a handicap in the EU.
Blair's nomination has fulfilled its function. Last year, no-one in Europe knew that the EU was likely to have a President, until Sarko tipped Blair for the job. Then Europeans realised two things: That the EU was getting a Presidential figurehead, and that they didn't want Blair for the job. Blair's high-profile gave the position a status it previously lacked: Now the EU Presidency has been linked to a big hitter unlikely to want to sit on his hands for the duration of his term, it will be easier to assign more powers to the role.
Such is life in Europe, where the Constitution isn't so much an ordering of roles and responsibilities but a leaky border fence, across which federalists try their luck in seizing more power.
As for Juncker, the French and Germans might continue to push it. Germany's Angela Merkel is said to back the Luxembourg PM, along with Wolfgang Schüssel of Austria (who is also supported, unsurprisingly, by Austria). Paris is said to view the Danish PM as credible, but is wary of allowing London to block a Franco-German anointed federalist yet again.
"If the UK succeeds in blocking Juncker's candidacy", Libération's blog notes, "that will be the fourth time it has imposed its views." Britain vetoed the candidacies of Claude Cheysson in 1984 (we got Jacques Delors for our trouble); Belgian's Jean-Luc Dehaene (which led to the disastrous Jacques Santer Commission); and more recently, Belgium's Guy Verhofstadt, touted by Chirac and Gerhard Schröder, was turned down by Britain and Barroso installed instead.
