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The End Of Europe?
Fascinating article by Richard North in the International Herald Tribune. North claims that a combination of single currency instability, constitutional wrangling and eastwards expansion will shortly spell the end of the European Union.
North is the co-author of The Great Deception: The Secret History of the European Union (along with journalist Christopher Booker). While researching the book, he writes, he made some serious predictions about the future of what Eurofanatics describe as The Project.
Six months later, he continues, his predictions are coming true. The high Euro is crushing already recession-hit Eurozone economies: France and Germany have already torn up the stability pact, cornerstone of Eurozone economic policy.
The collapse of the stability pact alone would not necessarily mean the end of the EU, even with recriminations flying between financially continent smaller countries, the European commission and the Franco-German alliance. A more flexible attitude from the European Central Bank could help with exchange rates and struggling economies.
However, the constitution and the ten new members it is supposed to rein into the EU have increased tensions.
New members have been given second-class status thanks to freedom of movement regulations and a disproportionately low share of agricultural subsidies. Poorer new members were left on the sidelines as France pressurised Germany into guaranteeing huge payouts to wealthy French farmers for the foreseeable future.
In return, France allowed Germany to take a share of EU voting rights which reflected its status as Europe's most populous nation. This was another slap in the face for countries like Poland, who joined the EU on the basis of a previous treaty, which gave Europe's largest nations (including Poland) a roughly similar share of votes.
Franco-German arrogance didn't help. North writes that France and Germany see the smaller states as 'handmaidens' who are expected to shut up when they disagree with their betters - as president Jacques Chirac famously said during the build-up to the war in Iraq.
Add to this tension between pro-US and anti-US states; between enthusiastic federalists and 'nation-staters'; between net contributors to the EU budget and those who gain financially from it - not to mention fearsome rows between those who already benefit from billions of Euros of subsidies and those who want a share of this loot - and it is no wonder that the constitution summit failed in December.
Even if the constitution is agreed, North continues, the wretched document needs to be ratified by all 25 states. An impossible hope? Maybe not, but signing the treaty would be like "locking down the lid on a pressure cooker and sealing the safety valve" - the break-up of the EU could take longer but when it came it would be explosive.
North concludes that a faster break-up into smaller units of "semi-detached members" would in the long run be better for Europe.
Is this likely to happen? North seems pretty certain that
The fantasy of the great European project, we wrote, would soon crumble into reality, destroyed by all the contradictions that it had failed to foresee and that it could never hope to resolve.
