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Open Race For Republicans
EURSOC's US correspondent Chris Timmers studies the form of Republican candidates.
Well, it looks like Hillary Clinton is still the front runner for the Democratic party nomination for President, but the Republicans haven't really settled down yet. It appears as though their final selection is anything but decided.
Rasmusseun Polls report (October 26, '07) that Clinton gets 46 to 49% of the popular vote against any of the top five Republicans who are seeking their party's nomination. But she also gets 48% of the popular vote against Ron Paul, a Republican of largely Libertarian Party sentiments who is, at best, a second tier candidate.
So, where are the Republicans in general? It depends upon where you look. In the latest Rasmussen Poll (nationwide) we learn that Giuliani is number one at 23% while Fred Thompson comes in second at 17%. Go to Iowa and what do you find? Mitt Romney leads the pack at 25% while Thompson is at 19%. But wait! There's always New Hampshire, that rock solid turf of unrepentant Yankees. And what do they say, according to Rasmussen? Romney leads with 28% of the popular vote followed by Giuliani at 19% and the almost forgotten John McCain at 16%.
Now, you might ask what difference to these individual polls make when the national tally favors Giulani over all comers? Simple: in the final months of 2003, Howard Dean led all competitors in Democratic polling and was favored to defeat George Bush. And what happened? One month later Dean had gone into melt-down mode, screaming hysterically after losing the New Hampshire primary in a now famous (or infamous) post primary speech and John Kerry emerged as the Dem's front runner. Kerry would later lose to GW Bush.
So what can I say? This business of polling here in the USA must strike many in Europe as tiresome and irrelevant (at least until the last month of the election cycle). Yes...yes...I agree. Buckle your helmets. It's going to be a rough ride.
