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Low Level War With Iran
SAS forces storm the Iranian embassy in London in 1980
Britain and the US are fighting a low-level "bush war" with Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Will it heat up?
According to "defence sources" quoted in The Times, men from Britain's elite SAS unit have made several sorties into Iran, ostensibly to take out arms smuggling operations.
The newspaper reports on "at least half a dozen intense firefights" between SAS troops and the smugglers, "a mixture of Iranians and Shi’ite militiamen," in the last month, with a tally of 17 dead smugglers. The British captured weapons, including explosives used for roadside bombs and missiles in the battles.
Iran's military are accused by the same source of firing mortars into Iraq: "UK commanders are concerned that Iran is using a militia ceasefire to step up arms supplies in preparation for an offensive against their base at Basra airport," the newspaper continues,
"The Al-Quds force has been increasing its arms supplies to both the Shi’ite militias in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Officially, Britain has been careful not to blame the Iranian government.
"But senior British officials have confirmed to The Sunday Times that it would not happen without the backing of the Iranian leadership."
The newspaper adds that US Special Forces are reported to have carried out numerous operations within Iran.
Information on British troops' operations across the border is strictly limited. The Times says it has been assured that British troops do not make "hot pursuit" over the border (the capture of yet more Brits, particularly SAS Brits, would be hugely embarassing after Iran's hostage grab of seamen earlier this year).
The report came as rumours of attacks on Iran intensified. While it would probably take a serious attack on Allied forces with high casualties which could be directly traced to the Revolutionary Guards to provoke all-out retaliation against Iran, increased movements on the shady border up the odds on such an event. Political movements within Iran itself up increase tensions too.
Iran's chief negotiator for its nuclear programme Ali Larijani resigned at the weekend, and is expected to be replaced by a hardliner. Iran's foreign minister, also seen as a moderate, is said to fear for his job. A meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad which talked up the Moscow-Tehran alliance seemed to embolden Iran, while the Revolutionary Guards missile and artillery commander Gen. Mahmoud Chaharbaghi's claim that 11,000 mortars, shells and missiles would be fired at US and Israel targets in the first minutes following an attack on Iran was interpreted by the press as more sabre-rattling.
It's definitely clear that storm clouds are gathering on the Iran-Iraq border. But does this mean conflict is inevitable? Few in the west want war with Iran - a much better equipped military force than Iraq has been for 15 years. Most governments take the line that Iran's government's apparent fanaticism is not representative of the people in the country, and that secularist and democratic groups should be encouraged. In the west, too, there are genuine worries about Iran's nuclear intentions, but intense scepticism over intelligence claims about weapons programmes thanks to the Iraq "dodgy dossier."
Also, it would be wrong to overestimate Putin's support for Iran. Their Caspian sea agreement sealed their mutual non-aggression, but Moscow would be mad if it supported Iran's nuclear programme. This doesn't mean Putin won't make life extremely difficult for those in the west who want UN sanctions against Iran - the Russian President evidently takes great pleasure in watching western leaders squirm - but most observers reckon a nuclear Iran is still a nyet-nyet.
Putin is playing hard to get with his erstwhile allies, too. He brushed off Tehran's request for a finishing date for the Bushehr nuclear reactor Russia is building for Iran.
Still, as Conservative defence spokesman Liam Fox says, Iran is playing a very dangerous game. And not just Iran.
