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Poodle Or Pit Bull?
Transport strikes first big test for President Sarkozy
At this moment, members of France's Communist-linked CGT trade union are marching on one of Paris' main boulevards in one of the biggest protests in five years. Public transport in the capital and throughout the country is at a standstill as the first major strike of Nicolas Sarkozy's Presidency takes grip.
The strikers are protesting against proposed reforms to their retirement benefits, which allow some transport workers to retire at fifty. Sarkozy's government wants to raise the retirement age in line with the private sector and public sector in other European nations. With a hefty parliamentary majority and a stunning personal success in the Presidential elections, he believes he has the mandate to reform France. The unions - increasingly anachronistic, with dwindling membership, but eager to stamp their authority on the new era - claim Sarkozy has misread France's mood.
There's an old saying about France and reform. In other countries, politicians lie to the people; in France, the people lie to the politicians. They say they want economic reform and the shaking up of vested interests, and vote for politicians promising change. But when the reforms are laid out and the inevitable union protests follow, the public blames the government and backs the strikers.
Sarkozy believes he can break this depressing cycle. For a start, he claims he was always lear about the changes he proposes: Many voted for him with some trepidation, but few were ignorant of his plans to liberalise certain aspects of France's economy.
His opponent in the Presidential election, Ségolène Royal, warned that Sarkozy was a threat; critics in the media, the cultural world, the unions and minor left-wing parties backed her, sensing that France was wavering between the soft-focus security of Royal's campaign and Sarkozy's promise of harsh reality, even "rupture" with the past.
Yet Sarkozy won, and won well. Unions were shaken, but shortly after the rentrée, when France gets back to business, CGT union leader Bernard Thibault was promising "plenty of sport, and not just rugby" for the autumn. A strike was called for today even before final proposals were on the table - a "shot across the bows" of the government, and a reminder to the public of the misery the unions can bring to France.
Wind back to 1995. Another new President had taken power that Spring, promising to bring reform to France's ossified Labour market and faltering economy. That autumn, the nation was gripped by transport strikes. Despite bringing the country grinding to a halt, the trade unions enjoyed popular support. The Prime Minister resigned, and his reforms were binned. Two years later, the President called a general election in an attempt to bolster support for further reform. His gamble failed: The public voted for a Socialist government. As retrograde measures such as the 35-hour week were introduced, the President settled into a pose of ineffectual statesmanship. Reform was put on hold for another decade.
That President was Jacques Chirac; the PM was Alain Juppé. Will Sarkozy go the same way? Some commentators believe that if a dynamic, popular political streetfighter like Sarkozy fails to reform France, it will never reform.
And as all eyes are on Paris for the Rugby World Cup final on Saturday night, the strikers dealt the government a PR blow by disrupting the circulation of the Eurostar train from London. Even though extra trains have been laid on to bring English fans to the final, several have been cancelled today because of the grève. If France can't guarantee a functioning transport system in time for the major sporting event of the year, the country can forget its hopes of hosting such festivals in future.
Will Sarkozy be the tough man France believed it needed in May this year, or is he just another in the long line of French poodles?
There's good reason to believe that Sarkozy could be an exception. Despite his combative stance before the election, in power he has been studiously even-handed. The fears of liberals appeared to be confirmed when he slapped down PM François Fillon's claim that the economic reform plan was completed, and just needed the nod to be launched. "Everything is still up for discussion", Sarkozy said. No pit bull here, but no poodle either.
Sarkozy's other political statements have hardly been liberal. He pulled the carpet from under EU liberals in June by securing the removal of a clause promising "free and undistorted competition" as part of the EU's raison d'etre. He demands special treatment for French companies, and has enacted a series of interventionist measures, a continuation of his feverishly interventionist activity while Finance Minister.
He's no liberal, and is in tune with the feeling of the average Frenchman, who is suspicious of globalisation.
He's in a stronger position against the unions, too. A majority of people polled by newspapers today claim that they oppose the strike (though l'Humanité, which is the propaganda wing of the French Communists, says its poll shows a majority supports the unions - perhaps it polled its readers?).
Most unions accept the need for change, but those who represent the transport workers take a tougher line. Of course, these are the guys who can do the most harm, but some union observers claim that the strikes are as much about internal union posturing as Sarkozy's reforms. The President reckons he can get the moderate unions on board, isolating the hardliners; the hardliners recognise that a deal is somewhere in the President's desk drawer, but have to figure out a way to get it which will allow them to claim victory and not a "sell-out" to the hated Sarkozy.
The fact that there is no effective opposition in France at present gives the President the opportunity to flatter the unions by allowing them influence in policy the Socialist opposition has been unable to exercise.
As France's long-suffering workers make their way home this evening, news of the strikes is likely to get second billing after the announcement of the President's separation from his wife Cécilia. But they'll have difficulty ignoring the industrial action. Should the unions carry out their threat to hold another strike next week, and another after that, France will be gripped by a battle of wills. The President, keen to do the job he was elected to do and determined not to become another promising contender who ran into union intransigence; the Unions, who need to shore up their support and demonstrate their continuing relevance in French public life as the "acting opposition."
Sarkozy and the strikers will have an eye on the opinion polls: There will certainly be a battle of wills, but this conflict will be won on the platforms of deserted stations and in the carriages of dangerously-packed metro trains. Will commuters blame the unstoppable force or the immovable object for their misery?
