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Designed For Failure
The failure of the summit doesn't look too disastrous for some EU leaders.
Tony Blair is an obvious winner. Apart from the pleasure he will take from the capture of Saddam Hussein, he managed to postpone domestic debate on a constitution referendum. Calls for a vote had been growing even among his own party in recent weeks and the summit failure means that the heat is off Blair for now.
He claims he has secured Britain's red lines on taxation, foreign affairs, social security, judicial cooperation and the British £3 billion rebate.
That's three more vetoes than his spokesmen claimed he was going to secure on Friday, so on the face of it, it looks like a good result.
However, rather than securing solid guarantees on the red lines, Blair only got summit chairman Silvio Berlusconi's agreement to protect them: Jacques Chirac was reportedly furious with the Italian premier for giving in to Blair's demands.
Everything is still to be fought for, despite Blair's claims. Federalists want national vetoes neutered, not nurtured, and there is no doubt that they will multiply their attack on Britain at the next conference.
Chirac himself didn't do too badly. Today's Financial Times (subscription required) reported that he, German chancellor Gerhard Schröder and their most reliable lackey, Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt met in Brussels on Friday night to agree that the conference was a dead duck.
They plotted to work on a vanguard 'two-speed' Europe with a fast lane of countries dedicated to closer integration. The three expect support from Italy, Luxembourg and Holland, though this is not guaranteed: Italy is opposed to the idea of a two-speed EU. Luxembourg's PM Jean-Claude Juncker is warmer to the idea, but adds that it would only happen after multiple serious disagreements. He indicated that the summit's failure was not so serious. As for Holland, the Dutch have become increasingly sceptical about the EU, more so since France and Germany scuppered the Stability Pact last month. Holland led calls for fines or sanctions and its leaders were reportedly furious that the gruesome twosome were let off the hook.
Nevertheless, reports suggest that Austria and Greece would be keen to join a fast lane, and Hungary and the Czech Republic may also be interested. France and Germany might not see the point of inviting assertive 'New Europeans' from the east into their club - after all, dissent is what they are trying to avoid.
Germany's leaders, while keen federalists, are not as happy as Mr Chirac with the outcome of the summit. Second-in-command of a smaller fast track EU would be a consolation prize compared to a starring role in a 25 member state. Nevertheless, Gerhard Schröder won praise at home for his firm stance - and God knows, he needs it, as he pushes through a series of modest economic reforms.
Better for him and his aggressive foreign minister Joschka Fischer, Germany will have ample opportunity to exact revenge on Poland and Spain in EU budget talks scheduled for next year. Germany threatened to link its donations to success in the constitutional summit. Debate on where funds should be channelled - southern or eastern Europe - is expected to break the Polish-Spanish alliance.
Poland's Leszek Miller and Spain's José Maria Aznar received very different welcomes at home. Both held on to voting rights gained at Nice in 2000, a treaty Jacques Chirac then described as "the best text ever signed since the Common Market came into existence."
Miller won widespread praise for his tough line, which appeared even more heroic considering the PM had survived a helicopter crash recently.
Aznar, however, faced complaints from opposition socialists, who claim that Spain should stick close to the French and Germans. The opposition, still smarting from Aznar's support of US president Bush in the invasion of Iraq, hoped that the PM would use the summit to make up to his powerful neighbours.
Aznar had other ideas. He bet his political reputation on holding on to Spain's voting rights, and would be able to depict his rivals as being willing to slice their nation's influence in half. He retires from politics next year having secured Spain's powerful voting weight until at least 2009.
The summit's chair, Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi, can take little consolation from the summit's failure. His off-colour banter suggested that he ended Italy's presidency of the EU in the same controversial manner he began it. Criticism of his ability to play a serious role on the international stage - always constant in the press - is sure to intensify. His opponents at home were quick to whinge, though one imagines Berlusconi is getting used to their complaints by now.
Berlusconi's much-vaunted final draft of the constitution never materialized, though to be fair to the PM he probably had little chance to unveil it.
It would be unfair to blame Berlusconi for the failure of the summit: It is clear that other leaders had decided it would fail before it began.
