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National Suicide?
The Guardian leads today with US reports that Iran is planning to team up with al-Qaeda and Sunni militants for a "summer offensive" designed to force the US out of Iraq.
Most US sources and many in the British military argue that Tehran is already behind a series of attacks on allied troops in Iraq. However, the US officials quoted in the Guardian's story say that the campaign will be stepped up over the next few months with the intention of causing "political mutiny in Washington and a US retreat."
It is also claimed that Iran has reversed its anti-Taliban policy in Afghanistan and was now actively supporting Taliban attacks against NATO forces there.
Commentators generally agree that while Tehran, al-Qaeda and Iraq's numerous Shia and Sunni militias share a fierce anti-Americanism, their differences make it unlikely that they would unite in jihad against US forces except on an informal basis. This may underestimate anti-US feeling and Iran's desire for regional dominance: It also ignores the "fluid relationships" that have emerged from the chaos of Iraq.
But what to make of these stories? There is little doubt Iran is testing its luck in Iraq, well aware that the US is not spoiling for another war in the region. However, a concerted effort, in allegiance with al-Qaeda, to force the Americans out, seems to underestimate US resolve. It is true that many Americans are tired of the war and hope to see an end to it. But to infer from this that American nerves would shatter in the face of an al-Qaeda / Iran assault strikes me as an extreme example of wishful thinking.
If anything, it would strengthen US resolve, and strengthen the position of hard-liners in Washington who want to escalate rather than wind down the Iraq effort. It would place Democratic opponents of the Iraq War in a difficult position. Leaving a hopeless situation is one thing; running from a fight you didn't pick quite another. Americans might believe that the invasion of Iraq was a mistake, but few would argue that a robust reponse to al-Qaeda (and Iran, if it chooses to ally itself with the terrorist network) would be unmerited - especially if they are engaged in an all-out assault on US forces in Iraqi territory.
Indeed, such a move by Iran would almost certainly put a hawk in the White House at the end of next year. Is that what Tehran would want - if there was anything left of the city by then?
EURSOC is surprised the Guardian hasn't used the unnamed source's claims as evidence that the US is planning strikes on Iran: This was the big hysteria earlier this year in the liberal press, but the claims soon subsided. If the Americans really did want to flatten Iran, linking Tehran explicitly with al-Qaeda would be a good way to warm up the public.
