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Third Man Keeps Singing
Do you remember those television talent shows, where contestants who outstayed their welcome would be removed from the stage by a giant hook? The French presidential election is beginning to look that way, as third-place contender François Bayrou looks unwilling to leave the limelight.
Yesterday he announced he would back neither of the remaining contenders (though it is thought he finds Ségolène Royal the lesser of two evils). He announced the formation of a new centrist party and pledged to take part in a television debate with Mme Royal before May 6th's final round.
EURSOC doesn't begrudge Bayrou his moment in the spotlights, but the French people have voted and it is time to move on. Even he admits that those who voted for him (18 percent or 7 million people - Labour won Britain's 2005 general election with just over 9.5 million votes) will make up their own minds over where to cast their votes in May. At the moment, it's thought they are leaning two-to-one towards Royal.
Current frontrunner Nicolas Sarkozy cannot disguise his exasperation with Bayrou's continued presence on the scene. During a televised interview on France's main TF1 news show, he told Patrick Poivre d'Arvor that he wouldn't join a televised debate with Bayrou: "When there is a football tournament, there's a final", said Sarkozy, "and the final is between the number one and number two. The third placed team does something else, because it isn't in the final."
So what is Bayrou's game? Well, he's never had this much publicity in his life, so he is determined to milk it for all it is worth. He's also taking the opportunity to settle scores with Sarkozy, who he claims is a danger to democracy (though not so dangerous that he can back Royal outright). Also, he wants to gain maximum coverage for his new Democratic Party.
Democratic Party? Doesn't that sound as if it missing a qualifier? We'll see. Bayrou intends to run again and win in 2012. The field by then may have changed.
Over on the fringes of the far left, parties including the Communists, Revolutionary Communist League and Workers Struggle managed only around 7.5 percent of votes between them. Olivier Besancenot, the 32 year old postman who heads the Revolutionary Communists got by far the highest score, with 4.2 percent of the vote. The "left of the left" looks like a busted flush for the time being, but the issues which inspire it aren't going away quickly.
Besancenot is tipped to move towards the mainstream as he matures. A future Socialist leader? At least he is open about his youthful extremism, unlike former Lionel Jospin, who was outed as a student Trot only after becoming Prime Minister. It's doubtful Besancenot could lead the Socialists as they are today, but imagine if tensions between left and centre in this already fractious party begin to tear it apart. On one side, the left break away to join with Besancenot in a new hard left party modelled on say, German's Left Party.
On the other, modernising Socialists look to the centre, which is dominated by... M Bayrou's Democratic Party. Socialist + Democratic = Social Democrats, et voila, France gets its first moderate left pro-Europe Social Democratic Party, a good, say, four decades after everyone else.
Far-fetched? We'll see. For now, however, we'd like to see M Bayrou leave the stage and let Sarkozy and Royal slug it out.
