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Sarkozy Faces Battle Royal
The centre-right candidate must overcome an anti-Sarkozy alliance to win the Presidency.
The polls put Nicolas Sarkozy at 31.2 percent and Socialist rival Ségolène Royal at 25.9. That leaves nearly 43 percent of voters who must make up their minds between the two candidates - if they vote at all - in the second round.
Despite the whopping great vote handed to Sarkozy - one of the biggest first round votes ever - the former interior minister and his supporters must be tapping on their calculators for votes in the next round.
Sarkozy has made angling for far right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen's votes an important election strategy. Controversially, Sarkozy believes at least half Front National voters cast their votes as a protest and would quite like to be in the mainstream: By talking tough on illegal immigration and national identity, Sarkozy hoped to lure voters away from Le Pen and into the mainstream. His 31 percent success suggested he did so.
However, he will need at least some of Le Pen's votes. Trouble is, Le Pen has made it clear to his supporters that Nicolas Sarkozy is the devil incarnate, a meddling "foreigner" with no claim to the French presidency. The fact that Le Pen's vote is down by one million votes, most of which appear to have gone to Sarkozy, is hardly going to endear Sarkozy to Le Pen any further.
Sarkozy must weigh whether it is worth wooing Le Pen voters - according to Le Monde, 83 percent of whom say they intend to vote for Sarkozy in the next round - or whether playing to the far right vote will alienate those supporters of François Bayrou that both he and Royal need to win over.
Bayrou's supporters count for 18.6 percent of the votes cast. How many of these were tactical votes by left-wingers - including nominal Socialists - who were swayed by the argument that Bayrou was the only candidate who could keep Sarkozy out of the Elysée?
How many were right wing voters, who dislike Sarkozy's abrasive and confrontational style? Will they now vote for Sarkozy, given a clear left-right choice?
How many were centrists who fear Royal's Old School Socialism, but couldn't bring themselves to vote for a right-winger? Which way will they jump now?
Sarkozy and Royal need to get a good idea of these numbers. Bayrou himself is being assiduously courted by both camps, and to date has hesitated to instruct his supporters to jump either way. An anti-Sarkozy Socialist-Centrist alliance was proposed before yesterday's vote, but was rejected: Will he call for his people to support Ségo this time?
It may not matter. Bayrou won support based on who he wasn't rather than what he said: His voters will make up their own minds.
Le Monde tips Bayrou's supporters to lean towards Sarkozy - just. A poll yesterday showed 54 percent say they will vote for Sarkozy against 46 who will support Royal. Perhaps too close to call, especially based on the opinions of just 1000 of Bayrou's enormously diverse support.
The good news for Ségolène Royal is that the far left is guaranteed to vote for her; indeed, most of the hard left candidates threw their support in for her hours after the exit polls were announced. This gives her an extra ten percent - but, again, there are voting oddities to consider.
Would you believe that 17 percent of Olivier Besancenot's supporters claim they will vote for Sarkozy in the next round? Or 22 percent of hardline Trotsyite Arlette Laguillier? It's slightly surer for anti-globalisation candidate José Bové's people, 90 percent of whom will go for Ségolène Royal. Only five percent of Communists (Communists!) will vote for Sarkozy in the second round.
Why would these people vote for Sarkozy? Some revolutionaries believe that having the right in power will speed the collapse of the state and the dictatorship of the proletariat: Others just hate mainstream Socialists more than they hate the right.
Sarkozy won't mind: He'll take votes from anyone.
Royal, for her part, will concentrate on nervousness about Sarkozy; not only his style, but his rumoured liberalism and the fact that a Sarkozy win is all-but-certain to spark riots in some quartiers. Is playing on this fear foul play? Perhaps, but Royal has depicted herself as the candidate of healing whereas her opponent is the embodiment of rupture and confrontation. Royal has more freedom than Royal in that her hard-left is covered: The most she risks is numbers on the far left staying away, rather than flocking to Sarkozy.
She is sure to have an anti-Sarkozy alliance, even if it will give her campaign a certain negativity. But then, she hasn't exactly been overflowing with good policy ideas, either.
