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Mooove Closer...
Europe's gruesome twosome, Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder, locked their countries into an even tighter embrace this week with plans to share sovereignty in foreign, defence, social and economic policy.
European stomachs are only just recovering after a summit last month, where the French president represented the German chancellor during votes and press questions.
Now, Europe is faced with a threat that goes beyond nauseating publicity stunts: A Franco-German alliance that hopes to dominate the EU as it expands eastward.
France fears that its influence will be diminished by the ten new members, many of which are opposed to its anti-American policy and resent France's arrogance in demanding that the new countries follow its line. The former communist states remember that France was unwilling to consider expansion for years, and that president Chirac threatened more than once to stall their membership of the EU.
Now some of the new countries, notably Poland (in alliance with older member, Spain) hope to force revisions to the draft constitution, which was timed deliberately before their accession in order to limit the new nations influence.
Many of the new member states, and some prominent current members, including Britain, favour a looser interpretation of the EU. France, which has traditionally seen the EU as a means of magnifying French power, is opposed to such a union, while Germany has long been one of the EU's most determined supporters of federalism.
A Franco-German alliance, it is hoped, will see off the short term threat to the constitution posed by the new members, while creating a 'core' of states determined to pool sovereignty in the long-term. France's foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin, is quoted in the Guardian as saying that merging many of the two nations' offices was "the only historic gamble that we cannot lose."
There are even suggestions that Germany might share France's permanent seat on the United Nations' Security Council.
The Independent reports on how the Franco-German union would play in Britain. Few Euro-fanatics are fanatic enough to want to be ruled by what would amount to a Greater France. However, it could also be argued that the scheme to create a small federal core is an admission that the EU is destined to be a looser grouping of nations than its most dedicated federalists hope for.
Britain would need to make some pretty rum alliances within the EU to balance such a power bloc. That may be the point: The Telegraph claims that much of French foreign policy effort in the past six months has been dedicated to prising Tony Blair away from the US and into the European fold. Blair has been only too keen to comply, by agreeing to many Franco-German demands for an EU army even while talking tough on the importance of the Atlantic alliance.
The reports have been greeted with glee by European commissioners. France's Pascal Lamy said that the union would be a great antidote to a looser EU, but admits that French and German voters might not be prepared for it.
Lamy's remarks are worth some reflection. It is not clear what the French or German publics think of this co-operation. Would the alliance survive the demise of the gruesome twosome? Chirac still has a few years remaining as president, and has yet to nominate a successor (not least because he faces trial for corruption when he is no longer protected by presidential immunity.)
However, his re-election is not guaranteed. Right and left wing fanatics together win a third of French votes, but while the president is banking on another Chirac vs Le Pen (or Olivier Besancenot) face-off, he might not be so lucky next time.
Furthermore, there remains the small matter of public approval of the draft constitution. Chirac has yet to decide whether or not to call a referendum. It is unlikely that he will call one if he seems set to lose the poll, and the above-mentioned extremists, as well as a substantial proportion of reasonable citizens, have expressed their opposition to the draft.
Schröder is in even more trouble. His approval ratings are at an all-time low. His attempts to force through reforms demanded by the EU have been met with resistance from his own party's left wing, while Germany's right is determined to make his life as difficult as possible. Commentators note that the man is only in power because of his opportunistic anti-Americanism before the Iraq war.
And that may be the key to the union. Anti-Americanism is about the only constant in French public life, varying only in degree.
Chirac may be replaced by another elite-school technocrat, a fascist or a even a Stalinist, but it is certain that the French president's foreign policy will be dominated by opposition to America.
While not quite so strong in Germany, anti-Americanism is certainly a force. It is difficult to imagine a politician running for office on a pro-US platform, at least.
The Telegraph reports that French and German voters have been cautious about close co-operation between their countries in the past, but mistrust of the USA is bringing them together.
The promise of dedicated and amplified opposition to president Bush could seal the union.
If that's the case, it's interesting to note that both countries reported increased economic growth this month. France and Germany claim that their economies expanded by a mighty 0.2 percent, far off US levels but reversing the negative figures of recent months.
So what is responsible for this turnaround? According to the German Federal Statistics Office, Germans can thank the resurgent US economy for their good fortune.
