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Green Day?
He looks like a scarecrow, but Green campaigner Nicolas Hulot could cause a major upset in next year's French presidential election
Even Ségolène Royal's most dedicated fans would admit that her image has helped her race to the front of the pack for the Elysee. Her chic suits, slick makeover and media-friendly grin come as part of the package that reads "modern, conservative-but-forward-looking, professional."
Most French voters sneered at their cousins across the Channel when they elected Tony Blair. A nice presentation, but no real policy, they said. Does it look like the French, after a decade of disdain for media-created politicians, would fall for the same thing themselves?
Enter Green campaigner Nicolas Hulot. Compared to Ségo, he's shabby: He wears tatty fleeces, and those awful hemp shirts that you see for sale in organic clothes fairs. His hair looks like it's been cut by Abu Hamza. Despite his background as a television presenter, he's a lot less polished than the Socialist candidate. In many ways, he's the anti-Ségo.
However, a poll today shows that he is far and away the most popular man in France.
The Ifop Barometre poll, carried out for Paris Match, puts his approval rating at 87 percent - the highest score the poll has registered since it was created in 2003.
Hulot doesn't stand for any party. He runs foundations dedicated to environmental causes, publishes books and delivers educational programmes on green issues at the Nicolas Hulot school in Brittany.
So what's he doing in a list of approval ratings for political figures?
There has been a persistent rumour since July this year that Hulot was considering a run for president. The 51 year old denied it at first, arguing that he wants instead to lobby the major parties to push environmental issues to the top of their agendas. Cashing in on his public profile and enormous popularity, the main parties have been quick to offer him a platform. He responded later with a Pacte écologique in the form of a letter to the "Future President", which he is encouraging voters to sign. Nearly 250,000 have done so already.
But, according to some sources, Hulot is still considering throwing his hat in the ring.
If he does, Ségolène Royal's camp will be nervous. Hulot has everything she has, and worse, he enjoys across the board appeal. The Socialist candidate already risks losing the votes of disaffected leftists to the various sects of the far left (though she hopes to make up for this by gaining voters from the centre). Royal's appeal to voters has been based heavily on her status as an "outsider": To have another candidate enter the field boasting the same credentials could be dangerous.
Her supporters must reckon that there is room for only one charismatic outsider on the left.
The mainstream Green Party would lose out to Hulot, too: Another poll puts him with twice the number of potential first-round voters than the Greens' candidate, Dominque Voynet. The various parties of the extreme left - most indistinguishable, but equally unspeakable to the average observer - also stand to lose. Much of their support comes from protest votes, and voters might quickly tire of their regular factional in-fighting (well explained here) if a genuine protest candidate came along.
The French like their saints. Medicines du Monde and Doctors Without Borders founder Bernard Kouchner was another high-profile, high-approval figure, while the burger bashing sheep farmer José Bové also ran high approval ratings a few years ago for his anti-globalisation stance. Bové might still run for president on a joint anti-liberal ticket - see article above). Hulot certainly fits this bill.
But will Ségolène Royal be in trouble if Monsieur Hulot cannot be persuaded to take a holiday next April? It is most unlikely he could beat her in a head-to-head confrontation, but, as 2002 showed, French election first rounds can be notoriously tricky events for mainstream candidates. Right now, Royal can count on around 30 percent of votes in the first round, which should easily see her through to the run-off. Hulot, a poll showed, could count on only 7 percent. But 7 percent is a lot in first round elections, especially for someone who hasn't even declared his candidacy.
No wonder, then, that Ségolène has come out in opposition to a potential Hulot run for the Elysee.
More gaffes, increased scrutiny of her policies (or lack of them), not to mention the weariness that is sure to set in as voters tire of this smiling, waving figure who never seems to say anything, could erode Royal's lead. Coupled with a further decline in French consumer power, which always seems to drive voters to non-mainstream candidates, and it could look shaky. And besides, Hulot's campaign hasn't even begun.
Again, it's unlikely Hulot would beat Royal: But should he run, many on the mainstream left will worry that he could "steal" protest votes from their candidate, opening the way for the far-right's Jean-Marie Le Pen, who is waiting in the wings for another split Socialist vote.
