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Here We Go Again
France's president Jacques Chirac given Iran more wriggle-room in the standoff with the west over its nuclear programme by announcing that he is not in favour of sanctions.
Does this mean the end of the west's united front on Iran's nuclear programme, asks the BBC? Well, er, yes. France - a UN security council member - has now joined Russia and China in opposing tougher action on Tehran. That leaves the US pushing for sanctions should Iran continue to defy the west's demands it halt and open up elements of its nuclear programme, and Britain siding with Washington, though not too closely. Germany, not a permanent SC member but an important player in the Berlin-Paris-London axis which tried and failed to halt Iran's programme for two years, is unlikely to pursue a tough line.
It could be argued that Chirac's move, which came in a radio interview yesterday, was directed towards isolating the US as much as easing pressure on Iran.
Chirac also brought what Washington will see as an unwelcome new flexibility to negotiations by declaring that Iran need not freeze key nuclear activity as a condition of talks.
Russia and China have growing economic ties with Iran. Publicly, neither believes that Iran's nuclear programme requires an urgent response, though surely neither Beijing nor Moscow would welcome a nuked-up neighbour in the region. Even though an opinion poll last year showed French citizens increasingly worried about Iran's belligerence - and saw the theocratic state as the number one threat to France in future - Chirac appears to have removed the threat of sanctions from the UN's armoury for the foreseeable future.
Reports suggest that Paris has been emboldened by what it sees as its success in the recent Lebanon crisis and hopes to win status as an honest broker in the Middle East.
The Beeb adds that there is a growing feeling in Europe that Iran can be persuaded to slow its nuclear programme by a charm offensive. European officials have discussed how a means could be found for Iran to end its nuclear drive while "saving face". Leaving Washington floundering at the fringes of talks, waving the threat of sanctions and military action, might be part of this strategy.
However, it's a risky strategy and it is likely to be time-consuming too. Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has revelled in the international attention its nuclear programme has brought the country. The threat of a nuclear-armed theocratic state has made Tehran a major player in the Middle East - perhaps the major player - and has seen Ahmadinejad feted by radical Muslims and anti-US demagogues such as Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. At this week's summit of "Non-aligned nations," Chavez embraced Ahmadinejad and declared to cheers his solidarity with the Iranians, warning that any attack on Iran would lead to trouble from Venezuela too.
We've come some distance, when a Holocaust-denying fundamentalist who sends special patrols on the streets to beat women who don't obey a strict dress code, and who is seemingly bent on the development of nuclear weapons can be feted as a hero of parts of the left.
