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Sarkozy's Euro Vision
France's centre-right presidential frontrunner Nicolas Sarkozy is no stranger to controversy. However, his Friday speech outlining his ideas for breaking the European Union's constitutional logjam has something to irritate pretty much every other head of state in the EU.
Speaking at a Friends of Europe thinktank meeting, Sarkozy called for the EU constitution to be slimmed down and pushed through parliaments prior to a full redrawing in 2009; the introduction of majority voting on issues such as EU-wide corporation tax; a blessing for a "two speed Europe" which would allow closely aligned countries to integrate further - the "hard core" of EU nations current President Jacques Chirac called for several times; and a final ban on Turkish membership of the EU.
There's something here for everyone, but Britain in particular will oppose each of Sarkozy's measures. Unfortunate, really, as both Tony Blair and Conservative leader David Cameron have identified Sarko as a liberalising influence in France. He's seen as the sort of man we can do business with, despite ample evidence that his economic instincts are in many ways just as Gaullist and protectionist as those of his predecessor.
Both major British parties see the constitution as a dead duck. Blair promised a referendum on the treaty, which he supported, and was hugely relieved when both Holland and France rejected it. While senior British figures agree that an attempt to revive the constitution is inevitable, they hope that as an issue it has been kicked into the long grass: The last thing either Blair's Labour successor or David Cameron need is another bloody debate on Europe. Moreover, Sarkozy's idea that a slimmed-down document be pushed through parliaments simply won't happen in Britain.
Next, the idea of "super-qualified majority voting" which would mean that controversial issues get pushed through with 70-80 percent support rather than the unanimity currently required. Many EU leaders would be willing to give up their veto on certain issues - indeed, the constitution allowed for this - but certainly not on the issue Sarkozy targets, the harmonisation of EU corporation tax.
Large western economies like France and Germany have long complained about competition from low-tax central Europe: One Belgian leader recently proposed that EU aid should be witheld from central European nations unwilling to raise their corporation taxes to Franco-German levels. For their part, Paris, Brussels and Berlin argue that low-tax countries are able to keep their taxes at attractive levels because they are heavily subsidised by western Europeans. Why should France and Germany contribute to their own decline by subsidising countries to "steal" jobs from them?
The problem for this is that not every western European nation has German levels of corporation tax. Britain and Ireland have low levels of corporation tax, and Britain's chancellor Gordon Brown has made clear that he sees varying tax rates as essential to competition within the EU's internal market: Indeed, taxation was one of the British government's "red lines" while the constitution was being drafted.
In any case, even if Sarkozy succeeded in introducing majority voting on issues of taxation, it is highly unlikely high-tax nations would succeed in gaining an 80 percent majority among ministers.
The issue of a two-speed Europe raised its head again: In some cases, it already exists, with Britain and some northern European countries opting out from the Eurozone and the ten members who joined in 2004 yet to meet the EU's criteria for membership. Some EU nations cooperate on security and customs too.
It's inevitable that the idea of a "hard core" of closely integrating states should emerge, and Tony Blair's political demise brings the process closer. Jacques Chirac regularly raised the spectre of a hard core of French led nations - Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, possibly Italy and the Netherlands. This was partly to regain some of France's lost prestige within the EU: When the above countries formed an early version of the EU, Paris called the shots. EU expansion, and the membership of states favouring looser integration, left France with a nostalgia for days when the EU was simply France writ large.
Also, it threatened to consign opponents to the "fringes" - France, Germany and Belgium would make a centralising powerful Bloc in the EU. The threat worked for Blair, who on becoming PM had stressed that Britain's destiny lay "in the heart of Europe." Locked outside an inner core of integrating states - even if it meant being locked outside with rich countries like Sweden, Denmark, Ireland and vibrant central European economies - was viewed as a dangerous loss of prestige.
The threat holds less fear for Blair's likely successor Gordon Brown. To the despair of his more Europhile colleagues, Brown has a populist sideline in columns and speeches attacking the social and economic models of "Old Europe", comparing them unfavourably to Britain and the United States. Closer political and economic union with France, Belgium and Germany is not something the chancellor would cherish - though if the Eurozone grows and Britain declines, he might change his tune.
That said, Germany has changed too. Under chancellor Gerhard Schröder, Germany looked across the Rhine for leadership. Half afraid of its new EU partners to the east, it seemed that Germany subcontracted its foreign and EU policy to Paris. Under Angela Merkel, a much greater effort is being made to link with states in eastern Europe. Germany should be at the crossroads between the rich west and the fast-growing east - indeed, it embodies the two within its borders. Locking into a rich, low-growth club would risk closing Germany off from Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltics.
While it's likely that "variable geometries" in Europe will continue, the idea of a French led core is largely a Paris fantasy.
Some see Sarkozy's call for a tightly defined Europe - excluding Turkey - as the most serious issue. Sarkozy wants Europe's borders to be finalised and the 70 million Turks to be locked out. He's got Angela Merkel's support on this one, though, once again, not Britain's. While current French president Jacques Chirac claims to support Turkish membership, he has also promised a referendum in France before the mainly Muslim country can join the EU. Current polls suggest that the French would reject Turkish membership.
The IHT looks at ways in which Turkey's EU accession dream is turning sour: Slow reform, questions over human rights, suspicion of Islam and Ankara's refusal to open its ports and airports to Cyprus have raised tensions on both sides.
Should Europe follow Sarkozy and Merkel's lead and declare that the best Turkey can hope for is "privileged partner" status, observers have warned that Turkish frustration could spill over into another "culture clash" between Islam and the West.
However, as German commentators already claim that few in Germany now expect Turkey to join the EU, it might be worth looking into means of managing Ankara's disappointment.
