You are in:
- Archives » 2006 » September 2006
The Farewell Waltz
With summer's "silly season" drawing to a close and the party conference season approaching, speculation about the timing of Tony Blair's retirement has reached fever pitch.
According to the Telegraph, around fifty MPs have signed a letter demanding that Blair steps down to trigger a leadership contest. Some signatories are ex-ministers, a notoriously bitter lot, but many are previously loyal MPs, who came into parliament in the 2001 and 2005 elections, "coming of age" politically under Blair.
At the weekend, there was even talk of a "Thatcher moment" - if the PM is not yet convinced he should step down, powerful figures in his party may need to take him aside and have a word in his ear.
Some MPs may be eyeing their long-term future: Blair's popularity ratings look unlikely to recover from their current slump. Others are more likely thinking about the shorter term. Gordon Brown, Chancellor of the Exchequer and the heir apparent to the PM, is not hugely popular with the public, despite a PR charm offensive in the past twelve months.
Brown would likely give Labour's support a bump, but with the Conservative opposition seemingly on the rise too, would this be a short-term fix?
We reported earlier this year on how Britain's economy was showing signs of stuttering. Voters are unhappy with new "stealth taxes" the Chancellor has introduced. Joblessness is increasing, too. Brown takes much of the credit for Britain weathering the storm that hit big continental European economies in the late 90s and early part of this decade: He'll take the blame if Britain slows down too.
Nevertheless, Brown's people, and many in the party who aren't particularly fond of the Chancellor's camp, want to give Blair's successor a "fair crack at the whip" before the next election, expected in 2009. The longer Blair stays, the more damage he's doing to Gordon's prospects.
Farewell Tour
The Daily Mirror got its paws on a supposedly secret memo compiled by some of the dwindling number of Blair loyalists, detailing plans to secure the PM's legacy.
While it was written in April this year following a series of upsets that made Blair's position look shakier than it had for months, the document, entitled "Reconnecting with the public - a new relationship with the media" is being taken by some in the press as a blueprint for Blair's last months in office.
A tour is planned of important new buildings erected during his time in office; Blair will visit half a dozen British cities, as well as the better schools and hospitals; and, of course, Blairism wouldn't be Blairism without plans to appear on several carefully-chosen television programmes, including childrens show Blue Peter and religious broadcast Songs of Praise.
With an emphasis on military timing and precision, the schedule looks more like an electioneering programme than a farewell tour. Blair, it appears, might not be able to canvass votes any longer, but his people are determined he campaigns for "hearts and minds."
The memo notes that time is not unlimited: Indeed, one of the defining features of Blair's reign looks like it will outlast him for several more years. Even the loyalists who scripted the memo describe Iraq as "the elephant in the room." A triumphant tour as Iraq degenerates further into civil war, with the attendant risks this poses for British soldiers, would infuriate many voters.
Moreover, Blair has made foreign policy the most important strand of his premiership. Though arguably post-9/11 much of this was forced upon him, there is a sense of resentment among many Britons that their PM strutted proudly upon the world stage while neglecting pressing problems at home.
The fact that the most striking feature of that foreign policy - his determination to stick by the Bush administration - is widely believed to have made Britain a target for terrorist attacks and has identified the British with a US leadership barely any Brits support, is a part of his legacy Blair might prefer to avoid celebrating.
It might even be argued that were it not for Iraq, Blair's legacy would be secure: Everyone, from Gordon Brown in the Treasury to David Cameron at the head of the Tories, seems eager to demonstrate how little they will deviate from New Labour's route. In fact, if Britain hadn't joined in the invasion of Iraq, it's entirely possible that we'd be discussing a potential fourth Blair-Labour win in 2009.
Tony's Rapture
Back in January, EURSOC claimed "One way for national leaders to ensure that their premiership is remembered as a prosperous golden age is to leave your successor with an inbox bulging with enormous difficulties." (...)
"Blair... must be aware of the writing on the wall. Figures released this week show unemployment in Britain is on the rise again. The PM must be thinking that despite trouble in Iraq, failure to break the EU's cycle of corruption and decline and a refusal to further liberalisation from New Labour, the period from 1997-2006 has been marked by economic growth and success for Britain on the world stage.
"He remains fairly popular, but is concerned about his heritage - and won't want to hang around to watch an era of gilded prosperity sink into grey depression."
Blair's popularity continues to sink - the article above was posted before Labour was hit by a series of scandals that have the accumulative effect of making a late-term government appear directionless, crony-ridden and rotten with sleaze.
While the PM is admirably convinced of his future utility to his party and country, it doesn't seem as if either shares his enthusiasm. The temptation to plug his ears to complaints about Iraq and sail up among the blessed must be great. The Labour insiders who drew up Tony's Farewell Tour memo are no fools: They realise Blair has a legacy, and the 1997-2005 period was economically successful for Britain.
They must realise too that Labour and Britain face an uncertain period: Perhaps his friends, rather than his enemies, will tell him that the best way to preserve his legacy is to leave before it turns to dust.
