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Slowly. But Surely?
Some good news for the rentrée for a change. French economic growth in the second quarter of 2006 was the highest for 20 years, says finance minister Thierry Breton.
The period of 1.1 percent growth, between April and June, is described as "exceptional" and puts France on a course for a 1.9 percent GDP increase in 2006. This follows a rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of the year, and it beat Banque de France estimates by a solid half a percent.
The BBC quotes a Deutsche Bank economist predicting that the rate of increase won't last - but he does detect an increase in the underlying rate of growth.
Good news, but how do the figures translate into reality for the perenially gloomy French? Breton hopes France has turned a corner in its economic troubles: He claims that the country is well on its way to reaching the targets, set by President Jacques Chirac last year, of bringing unemployment down to 8.5 percent this year. The Economist puts French unemployment at 9 percent, down one percent from last year's high. "Perhaps we'll even reach 8 percent in 2007" said the minister.
Breton added that purchasing power in France was also high, greater than any time in the past six years.
At this time of year, it is traditional for commentators to predict gloomy times ahead for the French economy: In a sense, September is when the new year begins, with parties setting out their agenda and vested interests, led by trade unions and student groups, threatening to throw obstacles in their paths.
The antics of autumn 2006 will be watched more closely than ever. Next spring sees the presidential election, when it is widely hoped the Chirac era will creak to an end and a new leader, with a new agenda, will set the course for France (and, they hope, Europe's) future. Nicolas Sarkozy, of the centre-right, promises revival through reform and nationalism. His potential rival, Ségolène Royal of the centre-left, has become associated with vague Blair-lite utterances, but may have her ambitions blocked by a jealous and conservative party elite.
A small group on the right sees the opportunity to guide France into the economic mainstream via limited liberal reforms. A larger section of mainly left-wing activists believes that 2007 could see France take a turn further left, setting a "social agenda" for Europe and the world.
Both camps will take heart from Breton's figures. Reformers will claim that more changes to those tentatives steps already taken by the government will deliver better results still - those opposed to reform will note that France's improved economic performance comes even as the street secured the rejection of liberal measures, including the CPE youth employment contract.
Expect close analysis of of the figures between now and April next year.
